What is ‘El Niño’ and what does it mean for housing professionals in the next few months?

Over the last few weeks, you might have seen news articles in the media referencing an ‘extreme’ or ‘unprecedented’ El Niño. This naturally occurring and ostensibly faraway climate phenomenon may seem to have little relevance for housing, but housing providers and the professionals working for them should be aware of it and what it might mean.  

This article aims to demystify what is happening, why it matters, and some of the things you should be considering in the coming weeks.  

What is El Niño?  

El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but which has global consequences. In simple terms, it refers to a period of sustained warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.  

El Niño is accompanied by La Niña, which is a term referring to a period of cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña alternate across several years in what is usually termed the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle, or ENSO.  

What is happening with El Niño this year? 

According to Carbon Brief, the current El Niño event began in June and is expected to last into 2027.  

It has been in the news more than normal this year because it is occurring at an unprecedented intensity. The Met Office has said it will be the “largest El Niño in living memory”.  

What happens to the global climate and weather during an El Niño event?  

El Niño’s impacts are very complicated and hard to predict, but it intensifies temperatures and weather events across the world. The most significant impacts take place in Southeast Asia and South America, which experience mixtures of hot, dry weather and extreme rainfall.  

The UK does not experience El Niño in the same way, but we are not completely protected from its impacts. The Met Office expects that a strong El Niño will “increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for Northwest Europe, including the UK, in the coming autumn and early winter.” 

Beyond this winter, the general atmospheric temperature increase caused by El Niño, combined with human-caused climate change, mean that temperatures could soar in 2027. According to the Met Office, this means that “2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record”, although the specific impacts of El Niño on the likelihood of heatwaves are less clear. In fact, some evidence suggests La Niña episodes can be linked to worse heatwaves globally, not El Niño.  

Why does this matter for housing providers and professionals?  

While the exact impacts are therefore very difficult to forecast, housing providers and professionals need to be aware of three things.  

Rainfall, storms and floods 

The first is that a strong El Niño will create an increased risk of extreme rainfall, storms, and floods (plus potentially cold snaps, although the evidence on this link is mixed) this autumn and winter. According to the BBC, storms are likely by November, and the potential for high winds and rainfall could cause flooding and other kinds of damage to homes.  

As well as flooding, storms can directly damage homes, for example by dislodging tiles from roofs, and can even cause serious fabric problems and water ingress due to the intensity and duration of wind-driven rain. Maintenance issues such as blocked gutters can exacerbate these risks.  

Assets and property services teams should review which homes might be at greatest risk due to their geographical location, age, or exposure to winds, and see if any proactive action can be taken to mitigate potential problems.  

Taking steps to make sure everyone across your organisation, including any relevant contractors, are aware of the heightened possibility of intense rainfall and storms, is important. Making sure your emergency response plans are up-to-date, resourced, and understood by relevant colleagues is also vital.  

Heatwaves and wildfires 

The second thing to prepare for is the possibility of a hotter, drier 2027. 2026 has already seen several heatwaves and a proliferation of wildfire events across the UK. While there is no guarantee that a strong El Niño will drive more heatwaves and wildfires in 2027, starting your preparations now will help.  

You can review existing good practice in CIH’s member-only Knowledge Hub, especially good practice guidance on shading and ventilation by the Good Homes Alliance and Shade the UK. We know that many housing providers are taking bigger steps to understand and prevent overheating in their homes, and this work will continue to be important as we move into next year.  

You can also review CIH’s guidance on understanding and preparing for wildfires, developed with the input of experts from across the housing sector and the England and Wales Wildfire Forum.  

Economic and supply chain impacts 

Lastly, although the evidence on this is much more difficult to navigate, a strong El Niño could cause increased pressure on global supply chains and commodity prices, especially for food. One study from Cambridge University also observes heterogenous and complex impacts on inflation across Europe.  

Finance teams should familiarise themselves with the outlines of this evidence and take steps to understand how it might impact their organisation over the coming year.  

Conclusion 

Although El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, it is the interaction of El Niño with human-caused climate change that will drive extreme weather events around the world in the next few months, including in the UK.  

While taking steps to prepare is therefore important, we must also keep the broader imperative for reducing fossil-fuel use and carbon emissions high on our agenda. Climate adaptation and mitigation are two sides of the same coin, and as housing professionals we need to pursue both with increased vigour in the coming years.